KFC is on the menu

All the talk at the moment is coalition. The voting system Khaiyum has given us is one which inevitably results in coalitions of parties if the elections are genuinely free and fair. Only the arrogance of Bai and Khai and the stifling of debate in our controlled media allowed the idea that FrankFirst Party would make a clean sweep of seats to be floated. Now the Times Tebbutt poll has brought FF’s balloon crashing to earth the serious coalition speculation has started. And if Frank asks anyone other than Khaiyum he’ll find there is no hope of a coalition including Khaiyum. It will have to be a KFC, a Khaiyum Free Coalition. FrankFirst won’t govern on its own, nor will SODELPA, they’ll have to work with NFP or FLP or PDP or even One Fiji.The only thing we can be sure of is it will be KFC.

14 Responses to “KFC is on the menu”

  1. KB Says:

    If this was a regular election, like the good old days, a Fijian party on one side such as the Alliance, SDL or SODELPA and an Indian Party on the other side such as the FLP or NFP we would have projected a 80% Fijian vote to the Fijian Party and a 80% Indian vote for the Indian party.

    Looking at the situation today we have a fairly clear “Fijian” party – SODELPA…..so they walk away with the 75% to 80% Fijian vote.

    It is not that clear on the “Indian” party……looks like majority Indians will go with FFP and Frank (the honourary Indian) ……but not in as large numbers as they had gone for the Indian parties before.

    Thus, rather than giving FFP an 80% Indian vote, I would project a somewhat lower number – more like 60%.

    And with the above percentages…….there has to be a coalition government.
    Most parties either have indicated their desire to work with SODELPA or are leaning that way.

    Frank has made it very clear that he cannot and will not work with another party.

    With 300,000 Fijian voters, an 80% vote for SODELPA translates into about 22-23 seats and if half of the “others” vote for SODELPA – it is up to about 24 seats.

    A 70% Fijian vote for SODELPA gives them about 20 seats and with about half of “others” voting for them – they are 21-22 seat.

    If FLP pulls in only 15% of the Indian votes (this is just over the 5% overall threshold) it gets them about 3 seats.

    Any of the above combinations gives us a SODELA/FLP coalition government.

    (BTW – I saw the various scenarios by our boy Delaibatiki in Fiji Sun with his Scenarios 1 – 5….I guess he has none of the above scenarios. He started with 25 seats for FFP and ended with a 30 seat scenario – we win this election – I want his opinion page job)

    DON’t Waste your vote – say if NFP gets 10% of the Indian votes – about 20,000. Those votes are wasted – NFP does not get a single seat….if that same votes went to FLP – that will increase the FLP seats (or Indian seats) by two more – from 3 to 5 seats.
    NOTE: Voting for any other party, who cannot get more than about 27,000 votes is a waste of your vote. Also, wasting your vote works in favour of FFP – so voting for loser party is a vote for FFP.
    So if you are going to vote – vote SODELPA, FLP or even FFP…….but anyone else is a waste of your vote – 20,000 votes to NFP gets you nothing, not a single seat…..

  2. recheck Says:

    @KB

    You are assuming that FLP will get more votes then NFP.

    What if NFP gets more votes then FLP (i.e NFP gets those 3 seats), then what is your scenario ?

  3. recheck Says:

    You are also assuming that Itaukei will vote en-masse for Sodelpa.

    How sure are you of that ?

  4. LOSALINI Says:

    sobo sobo, what a waste of energy and grey matter these polls. By hook or by CROOK, the rear-end dictator already has the 50 seats in his sulu pockets. the “1-day election” is already rigged. Do you think Bai/Kai and their stooges are ready to give up power now and to end up in prison? E maqa sara.

  5. KB Says:

    Yes Redneck, I am assuming that FLP will get more votes than NFP based on the fact, among other things, that in the last last election I believe that FLP got several hundred thousand votes to NFP’s maybe less then 10K and based on NFP’s miserable performance prior to that. Sure there is some discontent with FLP – and I have factored it in – from a 80% Indian support in the past to 15% now.

    As for SODELPA – the Fijians have voted as a block always – last election SDL got 81% of their vote with parties like PANU, SVT, National Alliance around – so that on is clear – and the overall perceived threat by the Fijian people.

    The above arguments are based on the “more likely than not scenarios”.

    BTW – the Indians will screw up this election and it they do, folks are going to be pretty pissed off.

    FOR EXAMPLE:
    10,000 Indians vote for NFP – they get 0 seats.
    10,000 Indians vote for PDP – they get 0 seats.

    NOW…..if those 20,000 Indians had voted for FLP, and if Labour makes the 5% threshold, which they very likely will……then those 20,000 votes would have translated into 2 additional seats for FLP – as is, those votes are wasted.

    Those two seats could make the difference between a SODELPA/FLP government or a FFP government – a 24-26 split, and it looks like it will be close.

    And if that happens……I don’t think the majority of the Fijians would ever forgive the Indians for this…specially those leaders of parties like NFP and PDP. .

    The sad part is that people like Kamal Iyer, Attar Singh, Dor Sami Naidu, Pramod Rae, Anthony and the rest of them – they know this numbers game…..But to them it is a personal vendetta against Mahend Chaudhry….their center of universe is Mahend Chaudhry,

    So sure, then may shut out the FLP from being part of the next government, and give us four more years FFP.
    But that is really sad…….that these bashuds could not set aside there personal fights for the greater good of the country.

    …so Anthony….what will you do when the army goons slap you around this time for your union activity…..report them to the police?

    I hope the Indian voters think hard before they vote….and the message gets out…..Don’t waste your vote….and if you don’t like Chaudhry……vote him and his party out the next time….and the alternatives are better.

  6. NFP Says:

    Prof Wadan Narsey’s latest video looked more like a post terrorists with an old blanket in the background.

    Wadan’s your prediction will be proven wrong.

  7. KB Says:

    Poor Wadan…I think he also needs a good PR team, like Qorvis.

    Anyway, the Narsey dude has more substance the Frank and Khaiyum combined.

    As for Professor Narsey’s prediction….I must have missed that.

    BTW..after this election I think I should be able to make a prediction …..whether or not there would Indians around in Fiji in the 2040.

  8. Daniel Says:

    I see a very strong FLP supporter in KB. I must say that he is a brave man. However, the writing is on the wall. FLP will struggle in this election.

    FLP will not get 10,000 votes. The story would have been different had MPC been around. Rajend chaudary has not helped either with his criticism of Dr Rohit and arvind Dutt.

    KB, I respect your view and the freedom to express it. I read someone put a post that MPC only attracted 20 in Ba today?

    All the best to all parties. M still an undecided voter. However, I do not want to waste my vote.

  9. Daniel Says:

    KB

    I agree fully with you that Kamal iyer, biman aeroplane and anthony are self centered people. They want to be leaders but are pussies.

    They can’t stand up fight, they just write with their pen or with their laptops.

    I hope NFP and PDP vanish for the good of us all.

  10. KB Says:

    Hey Daniel, thanks
    A disclaimer, I have never voted for FLP and the Alliance was the party of my forefathers.

    I believe the only hope for the Indians is the FLP – which can then manage the SODELPA just in case it decides to push the agenda of some of its more racists members.

    Just look at the facts – going into the future, the Fijian population is 65% and rising. The military is 99% Fijian.
    Sooner or later, The Indians will have to work with the Fijian.

    It is in the military’s interest and the any Fijian leader to ultimately side with the Fijian…..so then the military will bit the Indians in the arse.

    Indians…..a sorry lot.

    The Indians, even with their declining numbers could have had the balance of power and manage any government.

    As for the 30 people showing up…..there is always some confusion on numbers here ….FFP gets a 1,000 people and we get a picture for 70 people. However, Chaudhry had made a earlier statement that folks are intimidated and will not show up openly supporting anyone else but FFP. So we will see how well they were able to organize.

    These were the same Indians, winning a majority in an election could not make Koya the Prime Minister…because Indians like Irene Jai Narayan and K.C. Ramrakha would support him – the Indian bickering. BTW it was the racist Apisai Tora, who supported Koya for PM back then….Koya, the “son of Girmitiya”

    Then the Indian formed the Dove and the other faction in NFP.

    The Indians had two Farmer’s Organizations – one NFP and one FLP.

    And this time around ….it it the same….NFP, FLP and PDP.

    These Indians……Koya was the NFP leader – Muslim were NFP – when he was gone, they left.
    When Jai Ram Reddy was NFP – strong Madrasi support – and the Madrasi’s have not forgiven Chaudhry when he went against Jai Ram Reddy and wiped out NFP – you see to Sanjam former presidents, Dor Sami and Sada as NFP candidates in this election.

    The Gujju – were with NFP during AD Patel Days….then came Mac Patel, Ratu Mara’s sala.
    Today, the Gujjis, they just buy out whoever is the government.

    At the end the Indians will deserve whatever they get.

    On one side the regime has imposed this method of election on us – the 5% threshold rule will now rule out about 20,000 votes, mostly Indian votes, translating into a loss of 2 seats.

    On the other side they have knocked out Qarase and Chaudhary – who would have attracted a large number of votes individually.

    That means that Frank will be the single highest vote getter – and idiots like Sudhakar will ride on his coat tail.

    So the balance is tipped in favour of FFP – but still we have the numbers to make it very close.

    And as it looks…..I am still going with 26 to 28 seats for the good guys.

    Well……I got my visa all set…….will be out of here before the Khali Bhago starts…..whether it is now or in four years when either a Nationalist Fijian party wins an election or a Nationalist Fijian pulls a coup.

  11. Daniel Says:

    KB

    3 more days and we all will know the result. I predict a hard time for NFP with its lies and a lot of people do not have trust in the party that’s calls itself trust party. People will liumuri Nfp because of its agee pechee leaders.

    And its calls itself a coup free party but it was rabuka’s sleeping partner and now we know its president’s father was behind the 2000 coup.

  12. KB Says:

    Nice piece of Frank Bainimarama, his pattern of behavior – how he knocked out the mike from the white lady TV reporter’s hand.

    BTW the guy who wrote this piece is the former head of JOurnalism at USP.

    http://fijimediawars.blogspot.co.nz/2014/09/bainimarama-is-frankly-monster.html

  13. tualeita Says:

    KB, Bainimarama was just a wee bit short of assaulting the woman. Maybe the mike was in the way. It wasn’t surprising to me because he is a known woman basher. The video proves it to all of us who watched it.
    In the US he could be charged with felonious act which calls for a sure gaol sentence.

  14. KB Says:

    Tualeita…agreed….look at this man’s pattern of behavior…not just one incident – and we can see his predisposition to violence – he probably beat his kids, his wife, was probably a bully…and when he got power, we have heard all the report of beatings, his threats of violence that is on the record.

    Here we are talking about a Prime Minister.

    We have a much higher standard for the Prime Minister…..

    and yes, Tualeita – this act of his would get him a charge of at least a simple Assault and Battery…maybe not a felony.

    The sad part is that people who are voting for him don’t see this as the rest of us do.

    Some are talking about this guy as if he was the next Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Gandhi combined into one.

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