Ramram vs KB

A debate between two bloggers on FDN is too good not share in a post. KB is tipping a 90% Indo-Fijian vote and 10% iTaukei vote for FrankFirst. With an allowance for voter turn-out that means 21 seats for FF. Even with a possible 2% advantage for the the effect of votes going to other parties or the independent who don’t make the 5% cut-off, that means 23 seats for FF if he can get the 90%, which KB doubts. For SODELPA he assumes a 75% iTaukei vote which translates to 20 seats.  FLP/NFP/PDP pick up 7 seats.

Ramram disputes this, claiming polls show SODELPA will only get 20% of the vote, which means 10 seats. KB then replies and says if 20% for SODELPA is right, because this is what the Fiji Times poll showed last Saturday, then FrankFirst gets the 45% vote in that survey and this means Ramram’s assumption that FLP and NFP get no seats can’t be right. Another blogger, called Student, then joins the debate to help Ramram, admitting that 20 seats is probably right for SODELPA but NFP/FLP/PDP will win nothing.

One thing is for sure, Frank will have to learn how to work in coalition if he has any hope of government.  Even Ramram can see that

The comment clash KB v RR

18 Responses to “Ramram vs KB”

  1. bain Says:

    Too good to be true

  2. KB Says:

    I am not very fond of SODELPA – but looking at the choices we have, SODELPA versus FFP, I would go for SODELPA any day.

    The same goes for Chaudhry…..he may not be perfect but he is the best that the Indians have….compared to Pravin Bala, Sudhakar, Khaiyum and the rest.

    The FF supporters are very open and vocal about their support for FijiFirst….why should they not be. The rest of the folks who support other parties are understandably subdued – given the political climate of intimidation.

    That is why the poll numbers a skewed.

    So the 20% undecided and the 7% who will not disclose – they are all people who will vote for parties other than FijiFirst. And the only PM candidate, besides Frank realistically is Kepa…..so take her 20% and the 27% from above and she is at 47% to Frank’s 49% – with the margin of error, this is statistical dead heat….and with Franks numbers declining, FF should be worried.

    Here are some other things that is on our favour as far as polls are concerned.

    1. The rural Fijians – they are not a part of this poll. They are conservatives and they will vote SODELPA. (65% of urban Fijians want the GCC back, I would guess 80 to 90% of the rural Fijians want the GCC back….and guess what party these folks would be voting for)

    2. The rural Indians, in the cane belt, they were not included in the polls and they are the Chaudhry crowd – and that would have made a difference of few points in these polls if they were questioned.

    So now, people should realize that one last big push and we have this thing won.

    As for the Indians, they are afraid of a Fijian “backlash” if SODELPA wins outright.

    That is why they, the Indians, have to make sure that they have their boys in there with SODELPA in a coalition. By itself, SODELPA cannot have an absolute majority….they just do not have the numbers.

    Any violence or anything like that, and Chaudry would be at the Police Commissioner’s door steps. If you are not with SODELPA, then what will you do if the Police Commissioner decided to look the other way, like Savua did last time. Or Narendra Modi did during the violence against the Muslims in Gujerat.

    So it is in the Indians’ interest to give MC some seats and have a say.

    Another of the Indian fears are that if Frank loses, there will be another coup – and that is not good for the country.

    Well, the Indian should also look at it this way – the Fijians have been very patient hoping that they can bring about a change through this election. If this election is stolen from them, they may no longer be that patient. And when all means of a peaceful transition to a democracy has been exhausted, this leads to civil unrest. And guess what, the Indians would be the scapegoat, in any Intra-Fijian conflict….and then it will Khali Bhago….

    So the solution is….let SODELPA get its 20 or so seats …..and make sure that the Indians are part of that win…..part of that coalition.

    And you Fijians….it is a few more days….stop bad mouthing them Indos….we need 30% of them to vote for someone other than Frank.

    This is not about us individually….this election is about our grand kids, our culture, our people, our way of life.

    Who do you think will help make for a better society.

  3. LOSALINI Says:

    For a man who is arrogant, narcisstic and mentally challenged, and who has ruled Fiji for 8 years as a dictator, and who is supported by many rich and influential people, it will not be possible to share power. I see another Mugabe/Zimbabwe style of democracy.

  4. Dictators are scumbags Says:

    Frank Bainimarama is nothing more than a bullying standover man selling protection. If the indo Fijians fall for this it will be the biggest mistake they have ever made.

  5. Mukesh Says:

    People of Fiji, please note carefully that no single party is able to form government.
    Also make sure that no government is possible with coalition between two parties
    An ideal government must be formed with coalition between three parties.
    Having a three party coalition government will ensure accountability and transparency, and not forgetting what had happened in the past six years.

    Indian community don’t get fooled by Bainimarama’s spending on infrastructure projects. These projects remained to be paid as Bainimarama and Khaiyum took loans front Chinese.

    Split the votes husband, wife and kids must not vote one party.

    Also don’t forget to vote FIJI LABOUR PARTY as they are saviour

    God Bless Fiji

  6. Qalowasa T Says:

    Fijian UN peacekeepers released in Syria
    20:57 Thu Sep 11 2014
    AAP
    Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, al-Nusra Front, has released 45 Fijian UN peacekeepers after holding them for two weeks on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, an activist says.
    “The release was brokered by a Gulf state,” the Syrian activist said on Thursday, on condition of anonymity.
    The activist added that the details will be disclosed after the soldiers are handed over to the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan.
    Rami Abdel-Rahman, the head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said that his Britain-based watchdog had information the soldiers had been released.
    “We are still waiting for information that they have reached a safe area,” he said.
    The peacekeepers were abducted on August 28 in the volatile area of Quneitra, where Syrian regime troops and rebels have fought in recent weeks.

    http://news.msn.co.nz/worldnews/8904541/syria-militants-will-free-fiji-captives

  7. American Says:

    Great debate.

    I met an foreign tv reporter this evening. He told me. He said he attended a lot of political rallies and in some of the sodelpa rallies when asked the people who thry support, they privately told him FF.

    I therefore think that KB’s assertion that those who did not reveal their choice will vote against FF is not valid. I stand to be corrected.

    My bet is as follows:

    FF: 62%
    Sodelpa 32%
    All other parties will be combined 6%.

  8. Ba Says:

    Less than 15 people attended an NFP rally in ba yesterday.

    FLP will again be in parliament and not NFP.

    • Ba-go back to school Says:

      Seems you dont know the difference between a rally and a pocket meeting. Secondly, the current education system has made your counting poor-learn to count first. The number was defintely double of what you counted.

  9. FLP Says:

    Any vote for NFP will go to waste as will a vote for Pdp.

    Vote for flp.

    Nfp is not fit party

  10. KB Says:

    American wrote, “I met an foreign tv reporter this evening. He told me. He said he attended a lot of political rallies and in some of the sodelpa rallies when asked the people who thry support, they privately told him FF.”

    Dude…in the last election, the SDL, which is now SODELPA got more than 80% of the Fijian votes…and they were competing for the Fijian votes from parties like PANU, National Alliance, SVT, and a few more.

    What you are now saying is that SODELPA will now get only 32% of the total votes this election. And since SODELPA will get almost all Fijian votes, that translates into 58% of the Fijians voting for SODELPA.

    And you want us to believe that.
    .
    You also want me to believe that people who would not otherwise declare their support for FFP publicly would actually go up to a foreign news reporter and privately tell him that they support FFP…and that also at a SODELPA rally….and that reporter would disclose that to you.

    Good one…American……..and BTW – how come you did not finish high school?

  11. Aunty Nur Says:

    I have talked to a taxi driver in Nadi who told me that his cousin told him that he had heard a rumor that the Secretary General of Fiji First would be a certain Mr. Khaiyum. He further explained that Mr. Khaiyum has reportedly the full support of the entire iTaukei community and will therefore win all seats in parliament.

  12. Biswas Karna Says:

    Chor Rajendra chor-dury said that he is reliably informed that sodelpa will win 30 seats.

    Maybe, rajen did not have his medicine this morning.

    Sodelpa will not get 20 seats, how can it win 30 seats as other races other than itaukei will not vote for sodelpa.

    So rajen and his bullshit source should stop misleading people.

    Biswas karna.

  13. Raju Says:

    @ KB

    Bro, am a great fan of your post and your die hard support for FLP.

    I just concerned at your optimism that sodelpa will win 20 or so seats, especially if indo fijian will not give a single vote to sodelpa. Frank has attracted a lot of itaukei votes, and the young first times are inclined to vote for FF. If the survey by NGO’s is correct, we may see most urban young itauke votes for FF. This will break Sodelpa. Pls note that this election is based on different rules than the 2005 elections. If Frank gets 100k votes, he gets 10 seats. In 2005, he would have got 1 seat.

    FF will win if 1 in 5 itaukei vote for FF. You will know when the counting starts.

  14. Anon Says:

    Bai assumes all the smaller parties will be taking votes from his rivals, not FFP. If the Fiji Times poll shows anything, it shows him that’s not true. The race is wide open.

  15. KB Says:

    Raju wrote, “…..especially if indo fijian will not give a single vote to sodelpa.”

    No one is saying that Indian would vote for SODELPA. Did you know that in the last election, SDL got 1.5% of the Indian vote and 81% Fijian.

    Here, let me put it at a class three level.

    80% Fijian votes for SODELPA = 22-23 seats.
    70% Fijian votes for SODELPA = about 20 seats.
    65% Fijian votes for SODELPA = 18 seats.

    Now – if the “other” voters – everyone other than Indos – if half of them vote for FFP and the other half vote for SODELPA – then add an extra seat for SODELPA.

    Raju wrote, “FF will win if 1 in 5 itaukei vote for FF.”

    If FF takes 1 in 5 itaukei votes, or 20% and the rest goes to SODELPA then SODELPA gets about 22-23 seats.

    Now…..lets give FFP 85% Indian vote and give FLP 15% Indian vote. That is FLP just makes it over the 5% overall vote threshold. (the 5% threshold being about 27K votes and FLP get 30K votes.)

    FLP gets 3 seats.

    That gives the SODELPA coalition about 26-27 seats.

    Raju beta……I was using your numbers and we still win. My numbers are slightly better.

  16. Raju Says:

    KB

    I bet my last $ FLP will not get 5% of the votes. In fact, I am quite cetain FLP will not get 3% of the votes.

    Hence, forget about sodelpa FLp coalition getting 26 or more seats.

    4 more days and let’s see who eats the tatti!

  17. Tomasi Says:

    Sorry folks. All that we are talking about now are possible outcomes from a process in which we the people had no say about. How do we build a democracy through autocratic means? How do we expect stability from a structure when the foundation would dictate otherwise?

    Dr Narsey and others have been constantly pointed out to us the people about the fundamental flaws of this so called election. This election is a cunningly engineered endorsement for the thug rulers. They needed to win this election to get a parliament that will legitimise their constitution. Their constitution will guarantee them total immunity from all wrongs they have done to us and the succeeding generations. Their constitution will also give them the legal right to be our dictators for as long as they live.

    My folks from the village called me last week to ask who should they vote for. I asked them: What are the most important things to you? What are most things for your children and grandchildren? Do you still believe in right and wrong, good and bad? Do you want to be ruled by someone who is a murderer, torturer, liar and thief? What kind of Fiji would you like to have, for you and your future generations? Consider those questions and vote for the people and parties that you trust the most to bring your hopes to life.

    Please my fellow countrymen and women, let us learn from all these. For far too long, we have allowed a group of arrogant, selfish and morally repugnant people to lord it over us and our future. The election outcome will come, but it will be an outcome that is defined and determined by the process which birthed it. The outcome will therefore reflect the objectives and designs of the few cunning people behind this dictatorship. My questions are: What must we vote for? What will we do after the election outcomes are know? If the election results will return the dictators to power, what will we do as citizens of Fiji? Would we be morally bound to kick them out?

    May God bless you all and our Fiji with our right decisions. Vinaka

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