The Tebbutt-Times poll has shown that Bainimarama’s support as preferred PM has dropped from 60% to 49%. And FrankFirst Party found support among only 45% of voters polled. If this turns out to be right Bainimarama will have to learn how to say please and to listen to other people, because there’s no way he can become PM without support from at least one of other party. 45% of the vote gives him 22 or 23 seats in parliament, with the other seats probably split between SODELPA, NFP and FLP and PDP. He will have to allow other parties to have cabinet positions and to listen to more than Khaiyum, He’d better enroll in Cooperation Classes now because he’s got a of ground to catch up.
Fiji Times September 06, 2014 Top choices
Fiji Democracy Now Blog 
September 8, 2014 at 7:12 am |
Support for sodelpa is 20%;
Support for NFP is 2%
Support for PDP is 2%
Support for FLP is 1%
Undecided voters: 7%
Voters who did not say which party they support: 15%
So its a 2 horse race with Fiji first expected to get around 60% of the votes or more.
September 8, 2014 at 11:03 am |
Sorry to say but NFP and FLP will be in the sidelines after this election.
Sorry to say that all the new parties except SDL/sodelpa will be there with FF party.
All the bashing by NFP to FF without a viable policy option except the weak arguement for vat reduction has gone down the drain.
I hope the party will wrap up and close for the good of all.
September 9, 2014 at 12:06 am |
Where do you guys get your numbers…….
1. Fijians will vote against FF….and mostly for SODELPA and very few for any others – and there are about 300,000 Fijians votes.
SODELPA gets 75% of the Fijian votes – that 225,000 votes.
That gives SODELPA about 20 seats.
So were is the arguments you guys don’t think SODELPA will get 75%.
These polls….they only ask urban folks. Those rural Fijian folks, and that is half the Fijian voters – they will vote over overwhelmingly SODELPA.
Just on the question of GCC – 65% of the Fijians polled want GCC back – and that again is the urban votes….you ask the rural Fijian voters and they would probably be 90% for GCC.
And the way I see it…anyone who wants GCC back will be voting SODELPA.
As for that 2% for FLP…….haven’t you guys figured out Chaudhry yet……that dude got 37 seats in a 71 seat parliament…and now he is going to get 2%……2% my ass…..at least 40% of the Indos are going to vote for someone other than FF.
There are 200,000 Indo voters and about 90% will show up – that is 180,000 votes….and that many votes will get them about 16 seats total – that gives about 7 seats to NFP/FLP/PDP – and yes, all of these parties will get the required 5%.
So Sodelpa’s 20 seats plus NFP/FLP/PDP 7 = 27 seats….the magic number.
And you think one of these parties would want to form a coalition with FF…..yeah right!!!
September 9, 2014 at 4:02 am |
great analysis KB…………looks very realistic to me…….
Bai on way to prison soon…..note they have arrested ex coup leaders of Pakistan, Chile and Argentina for coups 10-20 yrs ago….moce Joe!
September 9, 2014 at 9:20 am |
KB
Go check tebbutt poll and see what is the support for sodelpa.
How come on one hand you reject the tebbutt poll on the % of votes for each party but accept the poll on GCC by the same people.
Thirdly, you may be right about the itaukei support for sodelpa. If 65% support GCC than its likely that they will vote for sodelpa. That 65% does not equate to 20 seats but let’s assume its correct.
FF with 90% indo fijian and general electors and 20% itaukei votes will still be able to get more than 25 seats.
For your information, indo fijians will not vote for NFP and FLP and this is supported by both Tebbutt and Razor polls.
So only 2 parties with FF with 30 seats and sodelpa with 20 seats (plus or minus 3 seats).
September 9, 2014 at 10:59 pm |
Folks in Fiji, who support anyone else either than the FFP are reluctant to disclose that…..because of the intimidation and fear of retaliation.
So everyone who supports FFP are vocal about it and those who don’t ..they keep a low profile.
That explains your fricken polls.
But even looking at the polls with that in mind – a drop from 90% to 60% to 49% and going down fast…..that looks pretty bad.
And the 90% Indo Fijian voting for FFP – what part of your anatomy are you pulling those numbers out of.
For the sake of argument, lets take your numbers – that 90% of the Indos and 20% of Fijians votes for FFP.
There are approximately 200,000 Indian votes, and lets say 85% of them vote (170,000). Out of that 90% Indians vote for FFP – that is FFP gets 153,000 Indo votes.
Overall, the estimate is about 540,000 people will vote – 90% of all registered voters – with Fijian turn out a little better than Indo – because in this election the Fijians are more passionate than the Indos.
That will give Fiji First about 15 seats from Indos – give or take a bit.
NOW – as for the Fijian vote – of the 540,000 total voting, about 300,000 are Fijians – out of that if 20% vote for FF – that is 60,000 Fijian votes.
That gives the Fiji First about 6 seats from the Fijian votes.
That give your boys, the Fiji First, a total of 21 seats.
NOW – let give then another two seats – just for some errors on my part – they are still at 23…then there is that scenario where some votes are wasted because of the 5% rule.
I calculated those numbers from your silly ass assumption that 90% of the Indos will vote for Fiji First.
A realistic number is more like 60% Indos going for Fiji First.
And you know who knows how to play this numbers game – Mahendra Chaudhry – that is how he got the 37 seats in the 71 seat parliament. And da man also know how to play the Balance of Power game…… that is how he brought down the Rabuka government.
Do the Math folks…….it is SODELPA….they will form the next government….and by the way……I don’t like Kepa either…..but she is the lesser of the two evils.
September 10, 2014 at 12:31 am |
KB
You forgot about the other races. All of whom will vote for FF and that is about 4 seats.
FLP will not win a single seat.
One more week and you will have it on your face.
September 10, 2014 at 1:42 am |
ram ram – here is what I said – there are about 591K voters – out of which about 90% will vote – that is about 540K – out of that there are about 300K Fijian voters and 200K Indo – that is a total of 500K – and that I think leave about 40K or so “others”.
And what makes you think “all of those other race will vote for FF”….”you son of a Kailoma, you have no land….” and you still vote FF.
and for FLP not winning a single seat …..OK….I guess I should just take your word for it……just our relatives told you there were a 1000 people there….and that is a fact.
Dude….you can have your own opinion….but here if you are going to post something…at least the second post…..try and add a bit more to your argument.
Yes, we all know that it is one more week…..but a lot else can happen in a week also…such as a rigged election or the loser refuses to accept the poll results etc.
So maybe we will not get all those answers in one week.
BTW – I see that from all 50 seats for FFP, now you seem to be willing to settle for 26.
Listen guy….you seem to be too much of a dumbass for me to spending any more time in here with this discussion…..however, I think it helps get a few more Indo’s to change their mind – and when it is going from 90%, to 60% to 49%……I think responding to idiots like you is still productive in the long run.
Jai ho!!!
September 10, 2014 at 2:37 am |
KB aka Kaisi bokola
Go fly kite you dumb ass. FF will win. All polls saying that.
Sodelpa support only 20% or 10 seats.
We will see who has the last laugh.
September 10, 2014 at 4:41 am |
Ram Ram………
Jai Ho.
SODELPA at 20 % = 10 seat
FFP at 49% = 25 seats.
NFP and FLP = no seats.
You one very smart dude!!!!
September 10, 2014 at 10:25 am |
Ramram and KB
Let me shed some light.
The polls are polls and has a margin of error;
Both the FT (fiji times) and FS (fiji sun) give similar results if we exclude the undecided voters or those who preferred not to reveal their choice.
Who would this 22% have chosen? Is it sodelpa, FF or others. Its difficult to answer but the most likely scenario is that they would have chosen similar to the other respondants who were not afraid to reveal their choice.
Hence the 49% for FF would be 60% and the 20% for sodelpa would be 25%. The balance of 15 would be shared amongst the 5 parties with no one getting 5%.
In terms of seat allocation, the 60% of votes would result in approx 70% of seats or 35 seats for FF and sodelpa would get 15 seats.
Now, is this correct? Yes and no. Yes, based on the polls. No, we will only know on 17th.
September 10, 2014 at 8:29 pm |
Hey Teacher, good intelligent response compared to the Ram Ram guy.
Here is something that I disagree with:
You are making the argument that those who are undecided or those who preferred not to reveal – you are saying that these folks would have made similar choices as those who did.
I tend to disagree with that. I have reason to believe that with all the intimidation and the current political climate in Fiji – while it is very likely that the supporters of FFP are coming out openly and declaring their support for FFP, others, anyone who is not supporting FFP – they are keeping a low profile and it is those who either claim to be undecided, when they are really decided or they refuse to disclose. BTW – I would also refuse to publicly disclose what my position is – since I have a lot to lose under a FFP regime.
Thus, even if we were to go with this Poll – Bainimarama will still stay at 49% or very close to it and most of those undecided and undisclosed folks would be going with someone other than Bainimarama and FFP – So, Frank at 49% or close to that – and others at about the same level – about 50%. .
And with your margin of error – this is a statistical dead heat.
NOW….consider this.
1. The polls are taken in the urban and Peri Urban areas. I think you would agree that the rural Fijians are more conservative and a higher percentage of them would support SODELPA. A very large percentage of the Fijian live in the rural area – and thus the polls is scewed in favour of FFP.
2. That rural Indian in the cane belt – there still is support for Mahend Chaudhary there- be it only a lower percentage then in his hay day.
3. With the numbers for Frank declining, and unless there is some drastic change in circumstances, we would expect this decline to continue.
So looking at the picture in its totality – just from the above numbers and analysis – it looks like someone other than the Fiji First will be forming the next government – very likely a coalition.
What do you think, Teacher, if one of your students brought this up – how would you respond.
Ram Ram…this discussion….is way above your pay scale.
September 10, 2014 at 9:11 pm |
KB
I hope the smaller parties pass the 5% threshold but will not place my money on it. Feedback from friends, families, colleagues, taXi drivers etc point to just 2 parties. In the event we have only 2 parties only, the results will favour FF more as they will be the largest party. M sure you know the maths as opposed to ramram.
September 10, 2014 at 9:44 pm |
Agree – there are lot of unknown – and sure, this is mostly a two party race and if we just look at the two – then FFP party is a bit ahead of SODELPA.
I think some people are too quick to write of Chaudhry – I think the FLP will definitely make it past the 5% – with rural Indians, the Farmers, some of the trade unions – and the Ba folks – where we see the likes of Sudhakar and Rosey Akhbar and Bala.
With the closeness of the race – anyone with a few seats would carry a lot of weight.
That is why, the Indians must realize that they are much better off with holding the balance of power with a very small FLP contingent in parliament, then to throw everything behind Frank….who may turn on them some day.
Look at the pattern of behavior of Frank…..he has betrayed a lot of people – why do you think he and Khaiyum be loyal to the Indians – specially when the Fijians make up 65% of the population and sooner or later – their numbers will matter and the Baiyum team will then pander to the Fijians.
I don’t like Kepa….but I am choosing her over Frank.
I don’t like Chaudhry…….but he is all we (Indians) got. (unless you think Sudhaka and Bala will do it…..Bala is Vinod Patel’s boy.).
So you Indians – you know what “hedging you bet” means. – that sure 60% of you going with Frank….but just in case things don’t go right……you have a plan B. Yeap….go out and give Chaudhry five or six seats. No matter what you think of Chaudhry….he is the only Indian leader who has stuck it out in Fiji.
The Gujeratis always hedge their bet…..so no matter who wins – they will still be doing exactly what they are doing now.
The Indians will make the difference….so show it to the Fijians your willingness to build a new society together.
September 11, 2014 at 9:26 am |
KB
I agree with your analysis but my gut feeling is that FLP without MPC is gone. It will not cross the 5% mark. So will PDP. NFP has the best chance but Biman is not the right leader.
Biman will gang with sodelpa. That’s what I hear NFP supporters are saying.
September 11, 2014 at 10:48 pm |
Well Teacher…..lets see about MPC…all I am saying is this guy has pulled things off before….FLP got 40% of the votes in 2006, from that to less than 5%….I doubt it.
NFP guy Biman….I think he lost that debate with Khaiyum on radio – where he was trying to speak the Indian Hindi and Khaiyum with his Fiji Hindi.
But then Indian politics gets a bit complicated….this time, the NFP – they have the Madrasi people (Sangam) strongly behind them – specially with a weak FLP…….the two former presidents of Sangam are candidates for NFP and their history with NFP – Jai Ram Reddy and all.
I think about 25% of all Girmitiyas were south Indians – so today their number is significant.
So they may surprise us.
Biman is a loser….and you can see it and I don’t trust him.