Will Frank dare?

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If he goes to Lomanikoro he can expect to be answering the important questions asked by adults, not exchanging smiles with school children, his preferred MO

The Fiji Sun propaganda mill has run a story declaring that Ro Teimumu has said Bainimarama is welcome to campaign in Lomoanikoro Village, the heart of her domain as Roko Tui Dreketi. The Sun seems to think this is some sort of coup for for the dictator but  the fact is Ro Teimumu has every reason to want him to go there because he will have to answer questions in a place where people will not be easily intimidated.  When Bai went to Nakorovou Ro Filipe put him on the spot with a difficult question about why the 2013 constitution was imposed without consultation.  His answer was a typical piece of Bai gibberish “Just about the Yash Ghai Commission we all participate in the consultation that will bring unity to all Fijian but when that does not happen that constitution is not fair.”  Has he forgotten that he burnt the Yash Ghai draft and then produced a new draft which was imposed without consultation?

Fiji Sun August 14 2014 PM welcome in Lomanikoro: Chief

24 Responses to “Will Frank dare?”

  1. Karan Says:

    It is a numbers game now.

    “A total of 65 per cent of the iTaukei population surveyed said they wanted the reinstatement of the GCC and 30 per cent of the Fijians of Indian decent supported its reinstatement.”And this survey did not reach out to the rural areas – which is half of the population of Fiji. In the rural areas one would expect even more support for the GCC. So the total Fijian support for the restoration of GCC must be well over 75%.

    So there – now only if you guys can get these Fijians to get out and vote SODELPA – and they will.

    And our boy Mahen, he will get the Indo rural cane belt crowd plus these 30% from the urban and peri urban areas who seem to support the restoration of GCC..we are almost there.

    I also think there is bigger support among Indians for the GCC restoration – just that those who do support are not saying it.

    Get the coalition going – cut out out the racist crap about Indos, Indigs, Muslims etc. You will get a chance to be a racist in a democracy – no worries there.

    Mahen would deliver that few votes, the balance of power votes, that will tip the scale in your favour. THINK!!!!…”

    Imagine SODELPA with only 22 seats and Mahen pulls out of his hat – 5 more seats.

    It is a numbers game.

  2. Karan Says:

    The Constitution: “The ownership of all iTaukei land shall remain with the customary owners of that land and iTaukei land shall not be permanently alienated, whether by sale, grant, transfer or exchange, except to the State in accordance with section 27”

    However, the State can take away iTaukei land in two ways:
    1. For “public purpose”
    2. By written law
    So what is public purpose – say it is good for a local city council to have two Indian businessmen build a huge complex – mall, hotel etc. It will create jobs, and is generally good for the public.
    Can the State take away that land from iTaukei and give it to the Indian businessmen for development – of course compensating the landowners, even if they did not want to sell.
    What about if the local Indian businessman in the milk business needs more land to expand dairy farming – or we need to save sugar industry – is that “public purpose”?

    If you really want to know what the plan is – secret purchases and private influences that will take away your land – here is a interesting article – how this thing works.

    http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/olin_center/fellows_papers/pdf/Kelly_5.pdf

    Remember how the term “ordinarily resident in Fiji” was not clearly defined earlier.

    Try getting the courts to interpret what “public purpose” means.

    KB

  3. Karan Says:

    “When we come to inquire what are public uses for which the right of compulsory taking may be employed, and what are private uses for which the right is forbidden, we find no agreement, either in reasoning or conclusion.” – UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT (1908)

    The new constitution is very clear on this – that iTaukei land can taken away for “public purpose”. And it a common thing worldwide – eminent domain….and if can be abused.

    In the new constitution “public purpose” is not defined. And that is not a mistake.

    Go see section 57 (3) and you will see how clear the definition of “public office” is. So defining terms is part of the job for anyone writes these things.

    Thus, I believe, the “public purpose” clause to take away iTaukei land is intentionally left undefined and ambiguous. This way the corporations, the businessmen and the state can gang up on the landowners and legally, through the courts, take away iTaukei land.

    KB

  4. toma Says:

    you make sense karan

  5. tualeita Says:

    It appears that the drafters of the 2013 constitution deliberately authored these ambiguous clauses thinking that we are too stupid to discern their deceitful means. And Bainimarama’s stupidity is so apparent that he jus wont question Khaiyum on these obvious oversights. Or is he accepting bribes to mislead us? But either way, I will not check their numbers on the ballot paper.

  6. bilo Says:

    Karan

    65% of itaukei votes will equate to approx 33% of total votes or around 16/17 seats and not 22 seats. So if FLp wins 5 seats, you will still be short of the illusive 26 seats.

  7. bilo Says:

    Karan

    If you agree that the issue of GCC will give 65% of itaukei votes, what is your view of the survey done by the same people Tebbutt Research that Frank has 60% support.

    I agree with you that its a number game. But but but, you need to be careful which number you are using for your analysis. Don’t raise your hopes for sodelpa as yet.

  8. Karan Says:

    OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR FIJIANS FOR THE GCC.

    Bilo, regarding the 65% iTaukei support for the GCC according to the survery, my observation was.
    1. This survey was done in the urban and peri urban areas and thus it does not give the real picture.
    2. About half the Fijians live in the rural areas. The Fijians in the rural areas are generally more conservative and are more supportive of such conservative ideas that has to do with the Vanua, lotu and the chiefs.
    3. Also note that with the rural to urban migration, the younger Fijians have move away from rural areas in larger numbers and they are already represented in this survey. And their views maybe less supportive of the GCC.
    4. So considering all that – one can reasonably conclude that the survey is skewed and if this survey was done among all Fijians the support would have been well over 75% and maybe even higher.

    So the headline in Fiji Times should have been, “Overwhelming Support for GCC Among The Fijians”.

    As for the number of seats, the point I was trying to make is “balance of power”. The need for SODELPA to work with Chaudhary, because in a close race – and it looks like it may be close – then the few seats that Chaudhary may get for his party – those seats will tip the balance in favour of SODELPA or FijiFirst – depending on which way Chaudhary goes – I have reason to believe that Chaudhary will go with SODELPA.

    Now you can go figure the seats with the hypothetical 75% Fijian support for SODELPA and then factor in the Chaudhary factor.

    Now – consider my analysis with the absurd claim by Mr. Bainimarama that he will win all 50 seats. Any idea how did he do his numbers.

    KB

  9. Karan Says:

    Bilo,
    The Tebbutt Research survey reported that Mr. Bainimarama had 56% support and his popularity had declined by a few points since the last survey. It also stated that the survey was only done in the Urban and Peri urban areas – there was no input from the rural areas.

    First, I believe any survey done in Fiji will be a bit skewed – reason being that supporters of FijiFirst are openly coming out and declaring their opinions – others are understandably reluctant, thus we get a lot of undecided or those declaring support for FF.

    My presumption is that since Mr. Bainimarama has been around for 8 years, and has been campaigning much longer than the others – that this decline will continue as the others gear up as we go to the polls.

    As I had explained before, the support for SODELPA in rural areas is higher – thus if this survey would have included the rural population – Mr. Bainimaram’s 56% rating would been a lot less – you take your pick as to what that number would have been – I believe definitely less than 50%. Rural Fijians historically have always voted more conservative then the Urban Fijian.

    And if this survey was done in a country where the opposition felt comfortable openly declaring their opinions – the number for Mr. Bainimarama would go down a few more points.

    I think this election would be more along the lines of “Anyone else but Mr. Bainimarama” – so vote would be more against FF then for SODELPA, FLP, NFP or any of the other parties….the majority of these parties will form a coalition.

    What is interesting is that FijiFirst is already now below 50% – if you accept the Survey numbers and factor in the rural population.

    And its popularity is declining.

    By the way, I am no fan of Mr. Qarase, Mr Chaudhry, or the current leadership of SODELPA – but I believe now we have a choice of the “lesser of the two evils” – and I think a SODELPA/FLP coalition is our best alternative under the circumstances. What other choice do we have? – four more years of this regime!!!

    The Indians are also getting concerned. A SODELPA victory may cause a backlash against the Indians – worse than what they saw during the Speight coup. They have began to hedge their bet.

    And their savior is Chaudhry, if he holds the balance of power in the new parliament, SODELPA will be willing to work with Chaudhry. By the way, Chaudhry, not being able to run in the election does not make any difference.

    It is a numbers game – and folks better start working towards that – Chaudhry already knows that – remember how he brought down the Rabuka government.

  10. Lote Rabuku Says:

    Vote SODELPA !

  11. sharan Says:

    @ Karan

    Interesting.

    Like u m no fan of LQ, MPC, Kepa or FB. While I don’t think FF will not win 50 seats, I am more than convinced they will win by a landslide.

    I observed that most indo fijians will vote for FF. M told that it could be approx 90%. Majority of “other races” will vote for Fiji First.

    I would like to think that atleast 1/3 itaukei would vote for FF. It could be as high as 60%.

    Even with 1/3 itaukei votes, they will win atleast 35 seats.

    FLP will not win any seats. Pls ask FLP candidates.

  12. attar Says:

    Nfp will not win any seats all because of smart ass Biman.

  13. kamal Says:

    Too many leaders in NFP. M tired listening to all of them. My Iyer is red and sore.

  14. Karan Says:

    It is a numbers game.
    There are 590,000 registered voters (I will round it of to 600,000)
    Say 90% turn out to vote or 540,000 votes.

    Here are my numbers – it gets too detailed and complicated – but my numbers a close enough.

    Say the NFP and FLP combine only get only 40% of the Indian votes about 80,000 votes – that will get the NFP and FLP combined about 8 seats. And FF takes 60% of the Indian votes (highly unlikely).

    SODELPA takes 65% of the Fijian votes, about 200,000 votes, out of a total of 300K Fijian voters.

    That will give SODELPA about 18 seats.

    FF gets 60% of the Indian votes and 35% of the Fijian votes. That will give FF about 21 seats.

    Another 3 seats go to the other parties.

    Almost all other parties will be willing to form a coalition with SODELPA if SODELPA had a chance to form the government.

    With the above scenario, FF loses the elections.

    I believe that SODELPA will get about 75% of the Fijian votes and that would give SODELPA about 21 seats.

    This is where it gets interesting for you Indos – SODELPA will not get a absolute majority – so it will need to form a coalition with someone and our boy Mahen comes in here.
    Because SODELPA will depend on the Indian vote to remain in power, it will deal with Indians. So you guys better make sure that you have enough seats between NFP and FLP to hold that balance of power. Voting 90% FF is silly – putting all your eggs on one basket – and sooner of later the Fijian majority will control Fiji and what are you gonna do when that happens.

    I also believe that NFP and FLP combine will get more than 40% of the Indian votes.

    Also remember that we hear a lot of crap – that FF will win all 50 seats or that 90% of the Indos are going with FF and all that…that ain’t gonna happen.

    The independent – regardless of how good or bad the candidate is, she is just wasting time – she will need about 27,000 votes to get in. Voting for an independent or even one of the real small parties is wasting your vote.

    Sharan,
    Let us go with your numbers – 90% of the Indo vote for FF (no way in hell 90% of Indos going one way for anything – impossible. ) and 33% Fijians vote for FF (that is possible) – that will give FF about 26 or 27 seats at best.
    So there will be no landslide unless of the them computers are rigged.

  15. Maginet Says:

    Watching FBC talk back
    show… question by Edwin Nand
    ” madam what do you say about the
    2013 Constitutiin that says that all
    citizens of Fiji are Fijians?”… ans by
    Noqu Marama Ro Temumu ” well, as you know, only when it is passed in
    Parliment and the Supreme court then
    we can call it a constitution..then I
    shall rest my case”…wahahaha
    matamu!!!!!..next thing Edwin is
    asking for a break….Edwin o sa buno levu mai…sa sega ga na kemu sa rauta
    na taro!!!….o sa vakalialiai iko tiko..and
    Joshua Tuwere (Fiji Sun) taura na ligai
    Edwin drau stroll I na sea wall….kaikail
    a!!!!
    Counting down to elections….bring it on!!!!….#Sodelpa#

  16. sharan Says:

    Karan

    Your analysis is fine but your assumption that FLP and NFP will get a combined 40% indo fijian vote is out off line.

    The more realistic number is around 10%, a max of 15%.

    I respect your view but you may wish to check with FLP and NFP candidates.

    Lastly, we will know in 30 days the results and let’s see how things turn out.

    So, FF will win with approx 60% of seats.

  17. Ramram Says:

    My close relative is a candidate for NFP. He informed me that he regrets being persuaded to stand for the party as the response from the people have been worse than expected. While funding from a few NFP businessmen have been strong, he confided that the candidates are at lost to explain why the people have deserted them. In particular the rural indian support has been very bad.

    I understand the support for FLP is the same but can’t confirm.

  18. Karan Says:

    Sharan and Ramram,

    My Kaka, Ram Lal, back in Fiji is also following the elections, specially the coverage from Fiji Sun and he is telling me the same thing – however, I do take his comments with grain of salt.

    You will agree that Indos who plan to vote for anyone other then FF are not coming out openly and declare it. Just as soldiers who will be voting for anyone other than FF.

    The question now is not how bad NFP or FLP is ….the question is what is YOUR best possible alternative.

    Historically, Indians have never been united on anything. There used to 30% Indian votes for the old Alliance Party. Then there were the NFP factions in the late seventies, and then there was the NFP/Labour splitting the Indian votes.
    Based on that pattern of behavior of the Indos, it is reasonable to assume that in this election, there will be a similar split.

    So, I will stick to about 40% Indo’s voting for parties other then FF. BTW – in the last election FLP alone got more than 300,000 votes, and you think this time around NFP/FLP combined will not get 80,000 votes.

    What the Indos should be concerned about in the the long term effect of the what they are doing now.

    Fijian population is at about 60% and going up. Sooner or later the Fijians will gain control of their country.
    What will happen to the Indos then – if 90% of the Indos are voting for FF now?

    Also be aware that if Fijians perceive this election as not being free and fair, and that this constitution was imposed on them without their consent – they may decide to bring about changes by means other than an election. And guess what, it will be the Indo who will become the scapegoat in any such conflict.

    The previous coups, were always about Intra-Fijian power struggle. Indos were generally on the sidelines.

    This one seems to be turning out as and Indo backed coup an Indo – iTaukei fight if 90% Indos are going with FF when a majority iTaukei are going against FF.

    Anyway, we shall see the results in a few weeks – the only thing there is the 800-lb Gorilla in room that we are ignoring – election rigging.

  19. Tomasi Says:

    Thanks Karan. Its great to hear sense and wisdom and a broad appeal for mutual understanding. Fiji needs a new brand of leaders with wisdom, vision, and courage. This election is absolutely vital and has far reaching consequences.

    It is a pity that a process originally conceived as a means of achieving consensus on political leadership through peaceful and democratic means has been cunningly manipulated by evil men and women to achieve absolute dictatorship and total immunity for thieves and murderers. But make no mistake, there is God in heaven and He still hears the prayers of His people.

    This election is more than just electing people for parliament. It is more about deciding what moral foundations do we want for our nation. Are we building our future on the sand of compromise, dictatorship, corruption and indifference? Or will we have the courage to proclaim loud and clear; “We stand for the eternal principles of right, justice, freedom, love, mutual respect and fear of God. Upon this rock we shall build our nation and we will not allow evil men and women to dictate to us and to decide our destiny without our participation and consent”.

  20. tualeita Says:

    Thank you @Tomasi for your remarks. I have always been an advocate for those who stand for righteousness and for the better human qualities of loyalty, honesty, transparency, and clean morality etc… And I would add that I support wholeheartedly those who also possess the Godlike qualities of love, and forgiveness, coupled with patience, kindness, fairness and justice. May I say here that not many (if any) of these candidates do have these qualities entrenched in themselves,

    But, perhaps, I will just vote for one who is the least evil of all who possess the qualities contrary to those described above.

  21. KB Says:

    FIJIFIRST CANDIDATE, ASHNEEL SUDHAKAR’S ALLEGED TIES TO INTERNATIONAL HINDU FUNDAMENTALISTS.

    Jay Dayal, Fiji President of Vishawa Hindu Parishad (VHP), announced on his FB page that Sudhakar’s was VHP’s General Secretary.
    Sudhakar’s FaceBook page states that he works with the World Hindu Economic Forum.

    Vishwa Hindu Parishad is an extreme right wing Hindu fundamentalist organization in India and across the world and expanding rapidly be establishing branches or cells (Google it). In Fiji they have established four or five branches since late last year.

    VHP Fiji rates itself as Fiji’s largest Hindu organization.
    This is how the VHP describes Fiji:
    “Its total population is 7 lakh and 40% of it (about 3 lakh) is Hindu. Many Hindu associations are active here. Their forefathers from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, etc., were taken there over 150 years ago as indentured labour. Under the regimes of frequent coups, the political weight of Hindus there is lessening. Educated Hindus are fleeing the country. The present military regime, however, is positive towards Hindus. Hindus there have established the University of Fiji. “

    In September 2013, the Fiji Times did a story on the launch of VHP (a “charitable” organization) in Fiji.
    Fiji Times wrote: “Funded by the World Hindu Council, the world’s largest international Hindu organisation, VHP Fiji hopes to promote and protect the interest of Hindus the world over.
    In a statement, VHP Fiji’s president Jay Dayal said they hoped to place branches in more areas around Fiji.”
    We do not need the VHP, Hindu fundamentalism in Fiji politics.

    This organization earlier this year tried to stop Evangelist Hinn from visiting India because they feared Hinn was converting Hindus to Christianity.

    FijiFist is really going after the Indian support but they are getting the wrong people – pandering to such group.

    We do not need extremist Hindus, Muslims or even fundamental Christians in our Politics.

    It is in the interest of the Indians to stop extremists from giving them a bad name – Stop Sudhakar

  22. Delta Tiger Says:

    Where the f is Bai? He has been missing for a wk now. Is he sick or what? We waiting for him in Rewa but no show. Couldnt even face our lady chief ,,,,what a drivelling coward!!!

  23. Tomasi Says:

    @Tualeita. Thank you for your kind and wise words. Its great to know that the voice of reason, wisdom and sanity is still being heard during a time when it is more easier and natural to join the chorus of curses. Our people are very frustrated. Our nation is crying out for help. Let us continue to contribute to the rescue mission. God is on our side. I know that you, Kainoqu, Ratu Sai, Dredds and others are one of us and that is very comforting. This is our land. We must do all we can to nurture and protect it. I hope we can meet together someday to take this struggle to another level after the elections. We are thinking of holding a series of conference/talanoa sessions where people of like minds can meet and share and plan and act to make a difference in some ways. Vinaka.

  24. KB Says:

    Tomasi, you talk about “one of us”…..yes, Fiji has become a country of us and them.

    The “us and them” should no longer be based on racial lines.

    There is at least 75% Fijians who want this regime out, and about 40% Indian who want the same.

    So now you decide who from this group is “us” and who is “them”.

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